BlackRock, Inc.
Financials · Asset Management & Custody Banks
Structural read: BLK is the index-distribution monopoly capturing the secular shift from active mutual funds to passive ETFs, while layering higher-margin tech (Aladdin) and private-markets (GIP/HPS/Preqin) on top of a fee-compressed core. iShares is now the #1 spot BTC ETF issuer ($IBIT >$60B AUM in <2yr) and a top-3 ETH ETF issuer ($ETHA).
Operating leverage is meaningful because incremental AUM costs near-zero to service.
- $11.5T AUM compounds with markets even before net flows; iShares net inflows ~$390B/yr run-rate
- GIP + HPS Partners ($12B infra debt deal) re-rate management fees from ~15bps blended to ~80-100bps on private alts
- Aladdin TAM expanding into private-markets analytics post-Preqin; sticky multi-year SaaS
- Spot BTC/ETH ETF dominance ($IBIT, $ETHA) opens recurring crypto fee stream alongside $COIN, $MSTR cycle
- Buyback + dividend yield ~3% with EPS compounding low-double-digits
- ETF fee compression continues (iShares Core S&P 500 = 3bps); blended fee rate trending lower every year
- Private-markets push is integration-heavy; GIP/HPS goodwill = balance-sheet risk if alts cycle turns
- Asset-management beta to equity markets - a 20% S&P drawdown pulls AUM and fees in lockstep
- Regulatory tail on ESG/proxy voting and crypto ETF custody concentration ($COIN as IBIT custodian)
- Active fund outflows (~$30B/yr) still partially offset passive inflows
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