Citigroup Inc.
Financials · Diversified Banks
4x) precisely because investors price in execution risk on Fraser's 5-segment refocus. Services franchise (TTS + Securities Services) is the crown jewel - ~$20B revenue, mid-20s RoTCE, oligopoly with $JPM and $HSBC - and arguably worth most of the market cap alone.
Markets is benchmarked to $GS/$MS, USPB to $COF/$DFS, Wealth to $MS/$UBS. Banamex IPO is the next discrete catalyst; medium-term RoTCE bridge to 11-12% is the equity story.
- Trades at 0.7x TBV with a credible path to 11-12% RoTCE → re-rate optionality
- Services segment alone defensible at high-teens multiple → SOTP floor
- Banamex IPO unlocks ~$7B+ capital + simplification dividend
- $20B+ buyback authorization shrinks share count while book accretes
- Basel III endgame finalization removes regulatory overhang
- 5+ years of restructuring fatigue - execution is the entire thesis
- Sensitive to credit cycle in cards (USPB) and CRE
- Services concentration in dollar-clearing exposes to de-dollarization tail risk
- Trading revenue tied to volatility regime - mean-reverts vs $GS/$MS
- Consent orders / regulatory remediation costs structurally elevated
No key levels recorded for this ticker.