JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Financials · Diversified Banks
1T), #1 in IB fees globally, #1 in US retail deposits post-First Republic. ROTCE 20%+ through 2024-2025 - best-in-class scale economics on the deposit base and dual NII/fee engine. 3% regulatory floor; ~$50B annual buyback + dividend capacity.
Spending $17B/yr on tech, ~$2B explicitly on AI (LLM Suite deployed to 200k+ employees, IndexGPT for research).
- $4.1T balance sheet + #1 deposit share = NII compounding regardless of rate path
- IB wallet recovery (#1 share) leverages capital markets reopen
- AI tech spend ($2B/yr) widens cost-to-serve moat vs regional banks
- First Republic acquisition added ~$200B deposits at ~$3B gain
- Capital return: ~$50B/yr buyback + dividend on CET1 ~15%
- Peak-cycle EPS - NII normalizes if Fed cuts compress deposit spreads
- Credit normalization: card net charge-offs trending to 3.5%+ from sub-2% trough
- Basel III Endgame finalization adds RWA pressure even at softened version
- CRE office exposure (~$15B) and IB fee cyclicality
- Regulatory tail: too-big-to-fail surcharge, CFPB overdraft/late-fee rules
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