Celsius Holdings, Inc.
Consumer Staples · Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
Structural: #3 US energy drink brand (~11% category share at retail) inside a Pepsi DSD distribution moat, with Alani Nu acquisition adding a fast-growing female-skewed brand and removing a direct shelf competitor. Category itself still compounds mid-single-digits globally with low household penetration in functional/sugar-free.
- Pepsi DSD agreement gives shelf access $MNST took 20 years to build
- Alani Nu deal (closed 2025) consolidates the better-for-you energy shelf and strips out a fast-grower
- International still <10% of revenue - UK/AU/NZ early-innings vs. mature $MNST footprint
- Gross margin recovery as PET/aluminum and freight normalize off 2024 peak
- Buybacks resumed after Pepsi preferred conversion clears overhang
- Pepsi inventory destock (2024-2025) showed how much reported growth was pipeline-fill, not sell-through
- $KO Bang relaunch + Monster Ultra refresh squeezing shelf space in C-store cold vault
- Alani Nu integration risk + ~$1.8B price tag stretches balance sheet just as organic growth slows
- Category SKU proliferation (Ghost, Bloom, Aliani, Prime, Reign) compressing per-brand velocity
- GLP-1 secondary read-through on impulse beverage occasions still unquantified
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