Sunrun Inc.
Industrials · Construction & Engineering
Subscriber utility on rooftops. ~1M customers, ~7 GW networked capacity, ~$15B contracted subscriber value. 0 California has flipped the unit economics: solar-only export credits collapsed, storage attach jumped from ~15% pre-2026 to ~60%+ on new installs, lifting subscriber value per customer ~30%.
Virtual power plant (VPP) programs with PG&E, $TSLA, and grid operators monetize the aggregated battery fleet as dispatchable capacity.
- Storage attach >60% on new CA installs lifts NPV per subscriber ~30% vs solar-only
- ~$15B contracted subscriber value vs ~$3.7B market cap, recurring PPA cash flows
- VPP revenue layer monetizes batteries as grid capacity (PG&E, ISO programs)
- ITC + bonus depreciation tax-equity model funds growth without share dilution
- Largest installer scale advantage in permitting, financing cost, channel
- Net debt ~$13B, rate-sensitive cash burn, going-concern questions cycle with Treasury yields
- IRA/ITC repeal risk under Republican administration would compress tax-equity economics
- High-rate environment stretches customer payback + tax-equity yields demanded
- Solar-only legacy book pre-NEM 3.0 has lower IRR than headline 2026 vintages
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