Enphase Energy, Inc.
Information Technology · Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Structural read: pure-play on US residential solar attach economics. 0 in California mechanically pushed battery attach from ~10% to 50%+ on new systems, which is bullish unit economics but coincided with rate-shock demand destruction. IRA 25D (homeowner) + 48E (TPO) credits underwrite the addressable market through 2032 but face repeal headline risk every budget cycle.
- Battery attach rate stepped from ~10% pre-NEM3 to 50%+ on California new systems - revenue per home roughly doubles
- US manufacturing (TX, SC) qualifies for 45X advanced-manufacturing credit, ~$0.11/W tailwind on domestic microinverters
- IQ8 microinverter is grid-forming, sole product certified for sunlight-backup without battery - moat vs string inverter competition
- European mix (~15-20% of revenue) decouples partial exposure from US installer-channel cyclicality
- Net cash balance sheet (>$1.5B) absorbs trough quarters without dilution risk
- 2024-2025 revenue collapsed ~50% peak-to-trough on rate shock + channel destock; recovery shape still TBD
- $TSLA Powerwall 3 bundles inverter+battery and is taking share at the high end of the installer channel
- IRA repeal or step-down headline risk is a recurring overhang into every election + budget cycle
- Gross margin sensitivity to non-US mix (Europe carries lower ASP, lower attach) caps recovery slope
- China-tariff-driven cost on battery cells + competitive pressure from $SEDG / Tigo on string side
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