Enbridge Inc.
Energy · Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Structural: ~98% of EBITDA is cost-of-service or take-or-pay contracted, throughput-insensitive across commodity cycles. 0 Mbpd Canadian heavy + light crude into PADD II/III refineries; gas transmission moves ~20% of US gas consumed; post-Dominion gas LDC serves ~7M customers across OH/UT/NC/WY/ID.
~$27B secured capital backlog through 2028.
- Regulated-utility cash flow profile with 30-yr dividend track record, current yield ~6%
- AI/data-center power demand drives incremental gas transmission contracts (PJM, MISO, ERCOT)
- Dominion deal closes 2024 add ~$1B annual EBITDA, derisks commodity exposure further
- Mainline contract renewal 2028+ likely renewed near current tolls given pipeline scarcity
- Permian + Gulf Coast LNG feedgas buildout adds gas-transmission rate base into 2027
- ~$80B net debt, 4.8x leverage limits buybacks vs $TRP / midstream MLP peers
- Long-dated Canadian oil sands exposure faces ESG/permitting + GHG-cap headwinds
- Trans Mountain expansion (TMX) competes for Mainline barrels into Pacific tidewater
- FX: ~60% CAD revenue translates lower as USD strengthens vs CAD
- Rate-sensitive equity - long-duration cash flows derate as 10Y stays >4.5%
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