Cheniere Energy, Inc.
Energy · Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Structural: largest US LNG exporter with ~45 Mtpa nameplate across Sabine Pass (Trains 1-6) and Corpus Christi (Trains 1-3 + Stage 3 expansion). Cash flows split between fixed capacity fees on ~95% contracted volumes (avg contract life ~15 years) and variable margin on lifted cargoes.
Stage 3 Corpus expansion (~10 Mtpa) ramping through 2026-2027 adds incremental EBITDA without commodity exposure on contracted tranches.
(1) European structural LNG demand post-Russia pipeline retreat anchors take-or-pay capacity payments; (2) Stage 3 brownfield expansion at ~$600/tpa capex undercuts greenfield economics; (3) ~$20B run-rate distributable cash flow with aggressive buyback + dividend ramp; (4) US permitting moratorium pause on new LNG export licenses is moat-positive for already-FID assets; (5) Long-dated SPA book with $NEE $TTE $SHEL $EQNR pushes contracted EBITDA visibility into the 2040s.
(1) Henry Hub-to-TTF spread compression squeezes variable margin tranche when Asian/European gas prices normalize; (2) Capital intensity of further expansions (CCL Mid-Scale Trains 8-9) consumes FCF that could otherwise return to shareholders; (3) Long-dated commodity-linked SPAs face counterparty renegotiation risk if global gas oversupplies post-2027; (4) Climate-policy regime change could impose methane fees / export levies; (5) Single-asset concentration - terminal outage at Sabine Pass or Corpus Christi materially impacts cash flow.