EOG Resources, Inc.
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Structural: pure-play US onshore E&P with a decade-plus inventory of premium-hurdle locations across Eagle Ford, Delaware, Bakken, DJ, Powder River, and Utica oil. Capital framework - low base dividend + variable dividend + buyback - caps reinvestment and forces excess FCF back to holders; balance sheet runs near net-cash with sub-1x leverage.
Differentiated from peers by in-house science (premium / double-premium well selection), self-sourced sand + water, and direct-to-power gas marketing in the Permian.
~10+ years premium inventory at flat strip; Utica oil window de-risking adds a new growth leg; variable dividend + buyback compounds shareholder yield through cycle; LNG demand pull + AI-datacenter gas burn lifts Henry Hub and the Permian gas tail; ~$5-6B annual FCF at $70 WTI funds returns without leverage; low corporate breakeven (~$50 WTI for base + variable cover).
100% commodity-tape - WTI below $60 collapses variable dividend math; Permian gas takeaway constraints + Waha negative pricing pressure realizations; service-cost inflation + Tier-1 inventory exhaustion across US shale; capital discipline cracking industry-wide would re-rate the sector lower; energy transition + EV adoption is a slow structural drag on oil demand; Utica oil productivity still early innings and could disappoint.
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