Devon Energy Corporation
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Pure-play US shale E&P; Delaware Permian is the swing asset (>50% of production after the Grayson Mill / Williston bolt-on), Eagle Ford + Anadarko + PRB round out the multi-basin inventory. Capital-discipline framework: <30% reinvestment of operating cash flow, balance flows to fixed + variable dividend + buyback; net debt / EBITDAX targeted near 1x.
long Permian inventory (~10+ years sub-$40 breakevens on core Delaware), variable div optionality on $80+ WTI, Grayson Mill adds ~100k bo/d Williston scale, hedges roll off into a tighter 2026-27 oil tape, buyback acts as a put under the stock at $40.
oil is a price-taker - variable div + buyback both collapse at sub-$60 WTI; Permian gas takeaway constraints pressure realizations; Tier-1 inventory exhaustion thesis re-emerges every M&A cycle ($XOM Pioneer, $OXY CrownRock); ESG/scope-3 discount caps the multiple vs $XOM $CVX integrateds; regulatory + methane-fee overhang under hostile administrations.
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