Exxon Mobil Corporation
Energy · Integrated Oil & Gas
Structural read: post-Pioneer, $XOM is the lowest-cost Permian supermajor (sub-$35/bbl breakeven on flagship assets) layered on a top-tier Guyana barrel (~$25/bbl breakeven, 650 kbpd+ and ramping). Plan-to-2030 targets ~$20B incremental annual earnings + $30B FCF uplift vs 2024 baseline, gated on Brent staying $60+.
Chemicals + refining are cyclical ballast; Low Carbon Solutions (CCS, hydrogen, lithium) is optionality, not numbers.
- Permian synergies from Pioneer deal tracking ahead of $3B/yr run-rate target
- Guyana Stabroek block: 11+ FPSOs sanctioned, 1.3 Mbpd by 2027
- LNG: Golden Pass (JV w/ QatarEnergy) + PNG expansion = top-3 global LNG seat by 2030
- 42 consecutive years of dividend growth; $20B/yr buyback authorized through 2026
- Lowest cash breakeven of US majors (~$35/bbl Brent covers div + capex)
- Brent below $60 collapses the $30B FCF uplift math
- Guyana arbitration risk ($CVX-Hess deal ruling reshapes Stabroek economics)
- Permian inventory depth post-Pioneer questioned by 2028+
- Energy transition / EV adoption demand-side overhang on refining + chemicals
- Low Carbon Solutions has yet to show project-level returns
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