Phillips 66
Energy · Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Structural: integrated downstream (refining + midstream + chemicals + marketing) with the post-DCP midstream segment now ~30% of mid-cycle EBITDA - the lever activist Elliott is pressuring to surface via partial separation or pure-play spin.
CPChem JV (50% with $CVX) is a top-tier ethylene/polyethylene producer; refining segment carries above-peer cost-per-barrel that Sweeny+Lake Charles efficiency programs are targeting.
- Elliott campaign forcing midstream value crystallization (spin, sale, or full conglomerate breakup) - sum-of-parts gap is the trade
- Midstream NGL volumes secularly bid by US shale gas + Gulf petchem/LPG export demand
- Refining segment cost-reduction roadmap (Rodeo conversion done, Sweeny/Lake Charles next) closes spread vs $VLO / $MPC
- $3B+ annual buyback capacity at mid-cycle FCF; dividend yield ~3.5% adds floor
- LA Refinery (Wilmington/Carson) wind-down removes a structurally negative-margin asset by end-2025
- Refining is cyclical; crack spreads mean-revert from 2022-2024 highs and 1H26 prints already softer
- Elliott catalyst path is multi-year - board approved partial actions but resisting full breakup
- CPChem ethylene cycle bottoming, not bottomed - China PE oversupply still pressuring global polymer margins
- Midstream segment carries embedded MLP-era contracts re-priced lower at renewal
No key levels recorded for this ticker.