MPC

STRUCTURAL

0M bpd, 13 plants); coastal + mid-con footprint captures USGC export arbitrage. 2B/yr cash distributions to parent - a midstream annuity inside a cyclical refiner wrapper. Capital return is the explicit thesis: post-2020 buyback authorizations have retired >40% of shares outstanding, structurally compounding per-share crack exposure.

BULL

- US refining capacity has shrunk ~1M bpd since 2019 (no new builds); remaining barrels earn structural rent

- MPLX distribution covers ~all of MPC corporate cash needs - refining cash is incremental returnable

- Renewable diesel (Martinez JV with $NEM, Dickinson) adds LCFS-credit optionality without bet-the-farm capex

- Buyback machine: ~$11B authorization remaining, share count down 40%+ since 2021

- Diesel/jet crack structurally tight on global middle-distillate shortage

BEAR

- Refining is cyclical - 2022 cracks were generational, mean reversion is the base case not the tail

- Renewable diesel margins collapsed 2024-2025 as LCFS credits compressed and feedstock costs rose

- EV penetration is a slow-but-real gasoline demand drag in the 2030s

- MPLX is concentrated in Marcellus/Permian gathering - basin-level risk

- Cap-ex on refinery reliability is non-discretionary; under-investment shows up as unplanned downtime