Karman Holdings Inc.
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Structural: pure-play exposure to two of the highest-priority DoD spend lines - hypersonics and missile defense - plus a smaller space-launch leg. Karman is content-per-vehicle on programs like LRHW, Glide Phase Interceptor, NGI, Patriot/PAC-3, SM-3/SM-6, Tomahawk, GMLRS and Stinger replenishment, and rides the $NOC Sentinel ICBM modernization.
Recent IPO float, no legacy commercial-aero drag, ~30%+ backlog growth into FY26.
(1) hypersonics is the single fastest-growing DoD budget line, +20-30%/yr through 2030 with bipartisan support; (2) missile-defense replenishment cycle (Ukraine + Israel + Indo-Pacific) is structural, not transient; (3) sole-source / qualified-source content on multiple programs gives pricing power and high switching cost; (4) clean balance sheet post-IPO, FCF inflecting; (5) optional space-launch leg ($RKLB, $ULA, $SPCE-adjacent) is small but high-multiple.
(1) Trive Capital still holds a large secondary overhang post-lockup; (2) ~70% revenue concentration in top-5 primes - one program de-scope hurts; (3) DoD budget continuing-resolution risk in any given quarter; (4) margins below pure-play primes, scale benefit not yet proven; (5) recent IPO = thin sell-side coverage and limited backtestable comps.
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