Leidos Holdings, Inc.
Industrials · IT Services
Structural: pure-play federal IT prime; ~80% revenue from US government (DoD + IC + civilian agencies); backlog typically $35-40B (~2x revenue) on multi-year IDIQ vehicles. Health segment (Defense Health Agency + VA disability exams) is the highest-margin leg; Dynetics adds hypersonics / counter-UAS hardware exposure.
defense IT outlay durable across administrations; classified work has limited DOGE-style cut exposure; backlog visibility floors next 12-18mo revenue; air-traffic modernization (FAA NextGen) and VA medical disability examinations are multi-year tailwinds; trades at discount to $BAH and $SAIC on EV/EBITDA; ~$1B+ annual buyback.
~80% gov concentration = continuing-resolution / shutdown risk; protest losses can flip $1B+ recompetes overnight; commercial sustainable-tech segment chronically underperforms; labor inflation on fixed-price contracts compresses margins; perceived DOGE/efficiency headline risk overshoots fundamentals on every news cycle.
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