Lyft, Inc.
Industrials · Ground Transportation
STRUCTURAL: US rideshare duopoly with $UBER; ~30% domestic share, ~70% for Uber. Lyft is pure-US/Canada (no delivery, no freight, no international), so the bull case is operating-leverage + capital-return on a single product vs $UBER's conglomerate.
- First full-year GAAP profit in 2024; FCF inflected positive, $500M buyback authorized.
- Risher turnaround delivering - price-lock and women+ driver match driving frequency and retention (rides growth outpaced $UBER mobility several quarters).
- Lyft Media (in-app + in-car ad network) is a high-margin attach with no incremental driver cost.
- Autonomy via partners (May Mobility in Atlanta, Mobileye, Marubeni in Japan, Holon shuttles in Dallas/Jacksonville) - no $WAYMO-scale capex needed to participate.
- Trades ~0.5x EV/sales vs $UBER ~3x; any narrative repricing is asymmetric.
- $UBER has scale, capital, Waymo Phoenix/Austin/Atlanta integration, and One membership cross-sell from Eats - structurally stronger.
- Waymo + Tesla robotaxi rollouts compress the driver-economic moat; Lyft has no proprietary AV stack.
- Insurance cost inflation is a recurring margin headwind in CA/NY.
- Take rate ceiling - drivers in CA/MA/WA have legislative leverage (Prop 22 challenges, MA classification).
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