NIKE, Inc.
Consumer Discretionary · Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods
Multi-year reset under CEO Elliott Hill (returned Oct-2024) after the Donahoe-era DTC overshoot decoupled NKE from wholesale shelf space and ceded running/lifestyle share to $ONON, $DECK (Hoka), New Balance, and Adidas. Stock ~$46 is a ~75% drawdown from 2021 ATH; FY26 is the inventory-clearing trough year per guidance, FY27 is the reacceleration tape.
- Wholesale re-entry restoring shelf at Foot Locker / $DKS / JD Sports, the channel that built the brand
- Innovation pipeline reset (Pegasus Premium, Vomero 18, A'One Wilson signature) plugs the running-category hole that $ONON / Hoka exploited
- China inventory now clean per Q3 print; comp setup for FY27 is favorable
- ~$8B annual buyback authorization + 2.4% dividend yield supports floor while turnaround compounds
- Brand equity moat intact - Jordan + Nike + Converse triumvirate still owns mind-share
- Tariff exposure on Vietnam (~50% of footwear COGS) and Indonesia under post-2025 trade regime is a live gross-margin headwind
- DTC margin re-rating works against re-wholesaling - gross margin compresses before it expands
- Running category share loss to Hoka / On is not visibly reversing in scanner data yet
- Discounting required to clear FY25/FY26 inventory eats into FY26 EPS
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