NRG Energy, Inc.
Utilities · Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Integrated ERCOT-heavy IPP + retail aggregator levered to Texas datacenter load growth. Bubble = datacenter-power (weight 0.70): owns ~18GW of dispatchable generation in the grid hyperscalers most want to plug into, while the retail book provides cash flow stability the pure-play IPPs ($VST, $TLN, $CEG) lack.
- ERCOT load forecast revised to ~152GW peak by 2030 vs ~85GW today - datacenters drive most of the delta
- ~18GW owned generation, majority gas + coal in Texas - dispatchable megawatts are the scarce asset for AI buildouts
- 7M retail customers + Vivint smart-home tie-in (2026 acquisition) = recurring cash flow that softens merchant cycle
- Announced LOIs / framework deals with hyperscalers for behind-the-meter and grid-adjacent supply
- Aggressive capital return: ~$1B buybacks + dividend, supported by retail FCF
- ERCOT is energy-only - no capacity payments; merchant spark spreads collapse if 2026-2027 build cycle catches load
- Coal/gas-heavy fleet faces carbon overhang vs nuclear peers ($CEG, $VST)
- Vivint integration adds debt + execution risk outside core power competence
- Hyperscaler PPAs gravitate to nuclear baseload - gas peakers may not win the structural contracts $CEG / $TLN are landing
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