Blue Owl Capital Inc.
Financials · Asset Management & Custody Banks
Structural: permanent-capital alternatives manager; ~$280B AUM with ~93% in locked/perpetual vehicles. Three legs: Credit (direct lending, BDC sponsorship of $OBDC/$OBDE), GP Strategic Capital (Dyal - minority stakes in 75+ alt GPs including some of the largest names in PE), Real Estate (net-lease + IPI Partners digital infra).
Revenue is ~85% management fees on locked capital → FRE compounds with AUM rather than carry realizations.
- Permanent-capital share insulates FRE from drawdown/redemption cycles that hit peers
- Private-credit secular tailwind: bank retrenchment + sponsor demand sustains direct-lending origination
- GP stakes (Dyal) captures economics across the alts industry - diversified bet on the asset class itself
- IPI Partners + ORENT extend reach into AI-driven data-center net lease
- Dividend policy explicitly tied to FRE, not carry - predictable payout vs $KKR/$APO
- Direct lending spreads compressing as competition floods private credit (~$1.7T market, every alt manager is now in)
- GP stakes are illiquid minority interests with no control; valuation is mark-based
- Higher-for-longer rates lifted BDC NII but credit losses on sponsor-backed loans lag the cycle
- Stock trades at premium FRE multiple vs $ARES/$APO - leaves little room for AUM growth disappointment
- Net-lease real estate sensitive to cap-rate reset if 10Y stays elevated
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