Rockwell Automation, Inc.
Industrials · Electrical Components & Equipment
Structural read: largest US-domiciled pure-play industrial automation vendor; primary beneficiary of reshoring capex, US semis fab buildout ($INTC, $TSM AZ, $MU), and EV/battery line automation. Logix PLC installed base is the moat - switching costs are decade-long.
FY25 organic growth turned positive after 6 quarters of destocking; ARR ~$715M software run-rate.
- US reshoring + CHIPS Act fab buildout = direct PLC/MES content (semis is ~10% of mix, growing)
- Logix installed base + FactoryTalk = sticky software attach; ARR growing ~15% YoY
- Sensia JV with $SLB tracks oil & gas digitization tailwind
- Margin recovery: orders/billings inflected positive in FY25 H2 after destocking
- $PTC partnership (ThingWorx IIoT) extends digital-twin offering vs $SIE.DE / $ABBN.SW
- Cyclical industrial capex - 2024-25 destocking shaved ~12% off organic revenue
- $SIE.DE (Siemens) dominates process control globally; Rockwell heavily US-skewed (~60% NA)
- Software ARR base small (~7% of revenue) - translation thesis is multi-year
- China auto OEM exposure (~5% revenue) softening
- Premium multiple (~25x fwd EPS) requires reacceleration to hold
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