Teck Resources Limited
Materials · Diversified Metals & Mining
3B net cash to Teck mid-2024), $TECK is a pure-play copper/zinc miner. QB2 is the marginal growth lever - design throughput 300ktpa Cu, still ramping after multi-year cost overruns. Highland Valley extension to 2046 + Zafranal/San Nicolas optionality define the long pipeline.
Dual-class share (Class A super-voting / Class B) collapsed Q4 2024.
- Copper structural tightness: grid + EV + AI datacenter cabling, global mine pipeline thin past 2027
- QB2 ramp delivers operating leverage as throughput hits nameplate (margin expansion at flat Cu price)
- $7.3B Glencore proceeds funded $2.75B buyback + balance-sheet reset, leaving net cash positive into copper cycle
- Red Dog zinc cash cow funds growth capex without dilution; concentrate stream into Trail captures refining spread
- Friendly jurisdictions (Canada, Chile, US) - premium multiple vs $FCX peers exposed to Indonesia/DRC
- QB2 cost guidance has slipped multiple times; FY ramp risk if mill availability disappoints again
- Copper price is the dominant P&L driver - recession or China property drag compresses margins fast
- Red Dog reserves deplete late-decade, no clear replacement zinc asset in pipeline
- Takeout premium evaporated after Glencore walked from full-co bid in 2023; standalone re-rate must come from execution, not M&A
- Chilean royalty + water permitting regime tightening adds cost creep at QB2
No major news in the last 7 days for TECK - only listicles and opinion pieces, which we filter out by default. See everything anyway.
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