Tesla, Inc.
Consumer Discretionary · Automobile Manufacturers
Structural read: TSLA trades less as an automaker than as a multi-product AI/robotics platform - auto unit economics fund the FSD, Dojo and Optimus optionality. Margin trajectory (auto GM ex-credits ~17-18%) is the variable the market re-prices on each print; Energy storage is the under-discussed compounding leg (Megapack deployments scaling >100% YoY off a small base).
- Energy storage GW deployments tracking >100% YoY; Megapack backlog into 2027
- FSD v13 unsupervised pilot in Austin extends robotaxi optionality without new capex
- Optimus prototype iterations + Dojo D2 training compute = embodied-AI optionality not priced into auto multiple
- Vertical integration on 4680 cells + die-casting structurally lowers per-unit cost vs legacy OEMs
- ~$30B net cash gives multi-year runway through any auto-cycle drawdown
- Auto deliveries flat-to-down YoY; refresh cycle (Model Y "Juniper", Cybertruck ramp) not yet stabilizing volumes
- Auto gross margin ex-credits compressed by China $BYD price competition + EU tariff retaliation
- FSD/Optimus revenue still de minimis vs $1T+ market cap - multiple compression risk if AI narrative cools
- Key-person risk (Musk political/X allocation) recurring overhang on institutional bid