Kinross Gold Corporation
Materials · Gold
Senior gold miner ($35B mcap) leveraged to spot gold above $2,000/oz with industry-average AISC ~$1,150/oz across a 4-mine portfolio (Tasiast, Paracatu, Round Mountain, Fort Knox). 7B FCF run-rate against $35B mcap.
- Direct gold-price beta with operational leverage: every $100/oz move in spot flows ~$210M to FCF (2.1Moz × $100)
- Tasiast 24k expansion delivered on time/budget - derisks Mauritania jurisdiction overhang
- Great Bear (Ontario) high-grade discovery is a multi-decade reserve replacement story, not yet in NAV consensus
- AISC discipline vs $NEM and $GOLD peers; capex peak passed in 2024
- Balance sheet net debt cleared to near zero; capital return optionality (buyback + dividend)
- Spot gold reversion below $1,800/oz compresses FCF margin to ~$400/oz, halves cash generation
- Mauritania (Tasiast = ~30% production) carries permitting + royalty renegotiation tail risk
- Paracatu grade decline well documented; mine-life extension requires sustained capex
- Sector ETF flows ($GDX, $GDXJ) drive correlated drawdowns regardless of company fundamentals
- No exposure to copper byproduct unlike $NEM, $GOLD - pure gold beta cuts both ways
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