Newmont Corporation
Materials · Gold
5 Moz annual gold production guided long-term, ~135 Moz gold reserves + ~30 Blb copper reserves. Tier 1 portfolio (>500 Koz/yr, >10 yr mine life, sub-quartile cost) is the operating moat - Boddington, Lihir, Cadia, Peñasquito, Ahafo, Tanami all qualify.
Copper byproduct grows to ~150 Mlb/yr post-divestiture program, a hidden electrification optionality.
gold-cycle leverage at scale - every $100/oz gold beat flows ~$650M to FCF at current production; central-bank buying + real-rate compression + fiscal-deficit hedge demand are multi-year tailwinds; divestiture of non-core assets (Akyem, Telfer, Musselwhite, CC&V) right-sizes capital toward Tier 1; copper optionality at Cadia/Red Chris is a structural ($FCX-adjacent) electrification call option the market under-prices; net debt declining post-Newcrest synergies; capital-return framework (dividend + $3B buyback).
AISC (all-in-sustaining-cost) inflation has been the sector-wide headache - Newmont AISC ~$1,500/oz vs $1,250/oz pre-Newcrest dilution; capex cycle (Tanami expansion, Ahafo North, Cadia Block Cave) pressures near-term FCF; gold thesis is macro-dependent - real-rate normalization would compress the cycle; jurisdiction tail risk (Peñasquito Mexico royalty/tax overhang, PNG sovereign risk at Lihir/Wafi-Golpu); single-commodity concentration relative to $RIO / $BHP diversifieds.
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