Pan American Silver Corp.
Materials · Silver Mining
Largest pure-play silver-leveraged major after Yamana digestion: ~22Moz silver + ~900koz gold annual production, all-in sustaining cost ~$16-18/oz silver equivalent. Silver beta is the headline trade - gold/silver ratio sits ~85x vs 60x long-run mean, so any mean-reversion thesis (industrial silver demand from solar + EV electrification + AI datacenter contacts, monetary debasement, Fed cut cycle) levers harder through $PAAS than $GLD-proxy miners $NEM $AEM $GOLD.
- Silver structural deficit 5th consecutive year (Silver Institute) - solar PV alone ~200Moz/yr demand vs ~840Moz mine supply
- Yamana synergies still flowing through: La Colorada skarn expansion + Jacobina Phase 3 are organic growth without M&A premium
- Operating leverage to silver price extreme - every $1/oz move on 22Moz = ~$22M EBITDA
- Escobal (Guatemala) restart optionality - 20Moz/yr mine on care-and-maintenance since 2017, ILO 169 consultation progressing
- Net cash balance sheet post-Yamana deleveraging - rare for senior miners
- Jurisdiction tail risk: Bolivia (San Vicente) + Peru (Huaron, Morococha) + Argentina (Manantial Espejo) all carry royalty/nationalization overhang
- Silver is a beta trade, not alpha - if real rates stay positive and DXY firm, $PAAS underperforms $SLV passively
- Yamana acquisition narrative dilutes "pure silver" thesis traders bought pre-2023
- AISC creep - every major silver miner is fighting grade decline + labor inflation in LatAm
- Escobal restart is a permanent "next year" catalyst - 8 years and counting
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