Intuitive Machines, Inc.
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Pure-play cislunar infrastructure name with three revenue legs: lunar surface delivery (CLPS), lunar comms relay (Near Space Network), and orbital services. 82B NSN ceiling gives unusual visibility for a sub-$10B space name. Mission cadence (IM-1 → IM-2 → IM-3 → IM-4) is the binary catalyst series.
- Sole-source NSN lunar relay contract through 2034 ($4.82B ceiling) anchors recurring revenue
- CLPS task orders awarded for IM-1/2/3/4; pipeline through Artemis cadence
- IM-1 proved the lander stack works (soft-landed Feb 2024) - second US entity ever to do so
- Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) award candidate alongside $LMT and $ASTS partners
- Optionality on DoD cislunar SDA contracts as Space Force scopes the domain
- IM-1 tipped on landing; IM-2 partial success - execution risk is the dominant variable
- Each mission is a binary event; one failure can erase quarters of progress
- Concentrated customer base (NASA ~90%+ of revenue) - appropriations risk
- Cash burn vs mission revenue lumpy; equity raises a recurring dilution vector
- Competition from $RKLB (lander ambitions), Firefly (Blue Ghost landed 2025), $ASTS-adjacent ventures
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