Rocket Lab USA, Inc.
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Structural read: only Western pure-play with a flying small-launch vehicle and a medium-launch vehicle in development, plus a Space Systems business that turns one-shot launch revenue into recurring component + bus + on-orbit-services flow.
Neutron is the binary catalyst - first flight slipped from 2025 to mid-2026; success reprices RKLB into the $SPX-eligible reusable-launch peer set with $SPCE long gone and $LMT/$BA captive to government cost-plus.
- Electron flight cadence rising (~15 launches in 2025 run-rate, only $SPX-listed small-launch operator with consistent manifest)
- Space Systems >70% of revenue, gross margins materially above launch segment, partially derisks Neutron timeline
- Neutron reusability targets sub-$50M/launch - direct $SPX/$LMT EELV substitute, US Space Force lane-1 NSSL win 2025 validates customer interest
- Backlog growing into Neutron ramp (multi-year visibility on Space Systems contracts)
- Government share rising (US DoD + Space Force + allies) - sticky, multi-year, non-cyclical
- Neutron first flight has slipped repeatedly; another year of slip pushes meaningful Neutron revenue to 2027+
- Negative FCF, cash burn funded by equity raises - dilution risk if Neutron slips again
- Trading at >20x forward sales (vs $LMT 1.8x, $NOC 2.0x) - pricing assumes Neutron success
- Electron unit economics still thin; small-launch demand softer than 2022 expectations as rideshare ($SPX Transporter) compresses pricing
- Concentration risk: single-engine ($Archimedes) failure on Neutron debut would be a multi-quarter setback