Redwire Corporation
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Pure-play space-infrastructure + defense-drone combo trading at a mid-cap discount to peers. Structural: ROSA solar arrays are on every major DoD and commercial GEO program (Gateway, Power & Propulsion Element, multiple SDA Tranche birds); Edge Autonomy deal adds ~$150M defense-drone revenue at higher GM than legacy space hardware.
3x for 6+ quarters, (2) ROSA + LinkStar-XL antennas + Roll-Out Solar are sole-source on several SDA + GPS programs, (3) Edge Autonomy is one of three US-cleared Group 2/3 UAS suppliers as Pentagon pivots from Chinese-component drones (DJI ban tailwind shared with $AVAV, $KTOS), (4) in-space biotech manufacturing (PIL-BOX, BFF) is an option on commercial LEO stations, (5) FCF inflected positive H2 2025.
(1) lumpy government revenue recognition + history of guide misses, (2) levered balance sheet post Edge Autonomy ($300M+ net debt), (3) dilution risk - 2024-25 capital raises tripled share count, (4) gross margins still mid-20s%, well below $RKLB structures business, (5) execution risk integrating Edge Autonomy supply chain into Redwire core.
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