Albemarle Corporation
Materials · Specialty Chemicals
Structural: largest global lithium producer with integrated mine-to-chemical footprint; Greenbushes JV with $TLEAY (Tianqi) is the lowest-cost hard-rock spodumene mine on earth; Salar de Atacama brine + Kemerton + Wodgina rounding out the asset base; deep Chinese refining capacity through Qinzhou + Meishan converters.
Bull case:
- EV adoption + grid storage demand keeps long-run lithium volume CAGR double-digit.
- Greenbushes cost curve (~$300/t spodumene) protects margin through any cycle.
- Vertically integrated: captures both rock and refined chemical economics.
- Counter-cyclical capex now positions for next pricing upcycle.
- Bromine + catalysts provide non-lithium cash flow stabilizer.
Bear case:
- Spodumene + carbonate spot prices collapsed ~85% from 2022 peak; cash flow severely impaired.
- New Australian + African supply (Liontown, Pilbara, Manono) keeps oversupply risk live into 2027.
- Chinese converter capacity oversupplied; refining margin compressed.
- Equity dilution risk if downcycle extends and balance sheet tightens.
- Customer concentration with a handful of OEM/battery names; pricing power asymmetric.
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