Firefly Aerospace Inc.
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Structural: pure-play Western launch+lander prime with rare commercial Moon-landing credential (Blue Ghost M1, Mar-2025), a co-developed medium-lift vehicle (Eclipse, with $NOC), and embedded Space Force / NASA / SDA contract pipeline. 9M (+163% YoY) - small base, but the trajectory is the asset, not the multiple.
- VICTUS DIEM responsive-launch demonstration positions FLY as the default Western tactically-responsive provider.
- $177M NASA south-pole lunar contract anchors Blue Ghost cadence beyond M1.
- $372M FORGE software contract embeds FLY in U.S. missile-warning infrastructure - high-margin, sticky.
- Lockheed/Seagate sea-launch JV brings 25-launch Alpha backlog before Eclipse first flight.
- Eclipse first flight unlocks Northrop offload from Antares legacy, opens NSSL eligibility.
- FY25 net loss −$334M (worse YoY); cash burn dependent on capital markets staying open.
- Alpha Block 2 booster lost in Sep-2025 ground anomaly - cadence risk until replacement qualifies.
- Eclipse maiden flight is binary; slip drags MLV revenue + Northrop relationship.
- Capital-goods multiples on a pre-profit launcher means valuation lives on narrative, not earnings.
- Concentration: NASA + DoD = >50% of revenue; budget-cycle risk is real.
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