Viasat, Inc.
Communication Services · Diversified Telecommunication Services
Structural: pure-play GEO satellite operator post-Inmarsat - L-band safety services + Ka-band capacity + defense comms. IFC, government secure links, and maritime are the three durable cash legs. Capex cliff theoretically passes once ViaSat-3 F2/F3 stabilize; LEO ($STRL Starlink, $ASTS direct-to-device) is the existential overhang on the consumer fixed and mobility books.
- Inmarsat L-band moat - global safety-of-life (GMDSS, aero ATC) is regulated, sticky, multi-decade contracts
- Defense/government segment growing low-double-digits, less LEO-exposed than consumer
- ViaSat-3 F1 partial recovery + F2/F3 on track restores Ka-band capacity per dollar of capex
- IFC backlog with $DAL, $AAL, $UAL widebody fleets locks 7-10yr revenue visibility
- ~$3.7B liquidity post-debt-extension buys runway through capex peak
- $STRL/$ASTS LEO disintermediates IFC and consumer fixed - ViaSat-3 economics built on pre-LEO ARPU assumptions
- Net debt ~$5.8B post-Inmarsat; interest expense compresses FCF for 2-3 years even on plan
- ViaSat-3 F1 reflector anomaly already capped F1 capacity at ~10% of design - insurance recovery is partial offset, not a fix
- Consumer fixed broadband sub base declining quarter-over-quarter as Starlink takes share
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