EQT Corporation
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Structural: Largest US gas producer (~6 Bcfe/d), lowest-cost Appalachian operator post-Equitrans integration. Vertical integration (production + Mountain Valley Pipeline + gathering) removes midstream margin leakage and locks in takeaway certainty - a structural cost advantage versus pure-play E&Ps competing for finite Appalachia egress.
(1) LNG export wave 2025-2027 - $LNG Plaquemines + Corpus Christi Stage III + Rio Grande add ~10 Bcf/d demand into Gulf Coast where EQT is positioning supply via MVP. (2) Datacenter gas demand - AI power buildout favors firm 24/7 gas over intermittent renewables; certified low-methane gas is the institutional bid.
(3) Henry Hub forward strip 2026-2028 rerating as LNG takes share. 5B+ buyback authorization. (5) Investment-grade upgrade path post-deleveraging.
(1) Henry Hub spot remains volatile ($2-4 range) - commodity beta dominates earnings. (2) Mountain Valley Pipeline operational/regulatory tail risk. (3) Permian associated gas keeps adding supply regardless of price. (4) Methane regulation and ESG capital flight cap multiple expansion.
(5) Mild winters or LNG schedule slippage delay the demand catalyst by quarters.
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